Open For Business During COVID-19
Nest Mortgage • April 29, 2020
If you're thinking about buying a new property, refinancing your existing mortgage, or if your mortgage is up for renewal, you might be wondering if getting a mortgage is even possible amid a global pandemic? Be assured that it is possible, mortgages are being written, and we're open for business (virtually).
Although it may not be business as usual. Mortgage brokers are still brokering, lenders are lending, real estate agents are selling houses, appraisers are appraising (virtually), inspectors are inspecting (some in hazmat suits), while lawyers continue to do what it is that lawyers do. Albeit in a climate of social distancing, with the increased use of technology.
Here are 3 things to consider while you plan for mortgage financing during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Everything is taking more time | Prepare yourself
As almost everyone involved in getting you a mortgage has had to alter the way they regularly do business, entire workforces are shifting from in-person to online. Despite the uptake in technology, things are taking a little longer than usual. Compounded by the fact that lenders are dealing with high submission volumes from clients wanting to defer mortgage payments, processing new mortgage applications can take longer than in previous months.
Your best plan of action is to prepare yourself ahead of time. Everyone is under a lot of pressure, so do everything you can to make sure your proverbial ducks are in a row and that you allow enough time to get everything done. Get as much of your personal documentation together upfront and be as organized as possible, it will go a long way in making for a smooth transaction.
Technology is keeping things running.
While many of the typical steps in the home buying process have been disrupted, with the use of technology, it is possible to buy a home while isolating in COVID-19.
Mortgage, real estate, and lawyer's documents should all be signed online. Although new technology can be scary, e-signatures allow transactions to take place, while doing your part to keep a social distance.
Admittedly, not the same as walking through a property, virtual tours allow you to get a sense of feel for a property more so than simple pictures. A lot of listings should have a virtual tour, while many real estate professionals are hosting virtual open houses, where they can take you on a virtual journey through the property using their phone.
Appraisers aren't required to complete a physical inspection any longer to determine a property's value; instead, everything happens online. An appraiser will use information from MLS data, municipal permits, property assessment information, client or owner information, and any other available source to estimate the physical characteristics of the house interior and the remainder of the property to come up with a valuation.
If you're looking to refinance or renew an existing property, the same is true, with the use of e-signatures and virtual appraisals, you can get a new mortgage, assuming you qualify.
You should expect more scrutiny on your mortgage application!
With over half of Canadians claiming to have lost work due to the COVID-19 coronavirus, it's not surprising that lenders are making a move towards extra scrutiny when assessing your overall application and employment documents. Lenders want to ensure your job stability now but also if things get worse down the line, you have good job prospects in the future.
As far as income goes, in a COVID-19 world, past job performance and income isn't a reliable indicator of future performance and income, everything has changed, and lenders are doing their due diligence. Lenders are becoming more conservative and risk-averse.
Lenders are starting to ask for income documents upfront. There is no use entertaining your mortgage application if they aren't confident about your prospects of employment.
Also, for self-employed borrowers, in addition to the standard required documentation of your past business income, you might be required to provide additional documentation going forward. Including, but not limited to: a description of your business activities, number of employees (including how many are actively working or laid off), current business status (operating or shut down), along with bank statements to prove stable income.
So although it might take a little longer than usual to get a mortgage, and you can most likely expect more scrutiny on your application, with the increased use of technology, mortgage financing is still possible.
If you'd like to discuss your personal financial situation, and how to go about getting a mortgage in these unprecedented economic times, we might not be able to get together in person for a coffee, but I'm open for business virtually and would love to help; please contact me anytime!
BoC (-0.50%) Holiday Rate Cut! 🎄
Who Knew? 🔮 As expected, or easily predicted, the Bank of Canada formally announced a 0.50% cut to the overnight rate earlier this morning. (click for official announcement) This adjusts Prime Rate down to 5.95%, the lowest level we’ve seen in the past two years, and demonstrates a clear signal that the BoC is doing everything possible to kick-start economic growth. A Green Light to Borrow Governor Tiff Macklem’s message is straightforward: borrowing just got cheaper, and more cuts could be coming. With inflation settling back around the 2% target, he’s effectively giving Canadians the go-ahead to take advantage of lower rates, even if average core inflation is still a touch above the goal. "We want to see growth strengthen," Macklem said, and he’s determined to make it happen.
BoC Update | How the Latest BoC Cut Impacts Your Mortgage
Prime Rate will drop from 6.95% to 6.70%.
Specific to variable rate mortgages, the Prime Lending Rate will drop by .25% to 6.95%
As anticipated, this week's Bank of Canada announcement kept the overnight rate unchanged. The Bank expects inflation to hover around 3% and drop below 2.50% later this year, aiming to reach the target of 2% by 2025. Wednesday marked the sixth consecutive "no change" announcement, although speculation persists that we should see rates, specifically Prime, drop by .75-1.00% by the end of 2024. Despite no movement being widely anticipated, it is disappointing that further insight into a housing market reset has now been postponed until the next scheduled decision on June 5th. With unemployment at a 26-month high and GDP underperforming, these are two indicators contradicting the notion of rates remaining "higher for longer".
In light of theIn the wake of today's Bank of Canada (BoC) announcement maintaining the overnight rate at 5.00%, Nest brings you a comprehensive overview of the current mortgage landscape. Prime Rates and payments for variable lending products remain unchanged following this non-rate event, leaving borrowers in a familiar position. While the BoC provided limited insight into the potential timing of interest rate cuts, consensus suggests we might witness the first rate cut materializing in June of this year. Despite the ongoing commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians, a message consistent since July 2023, it is essential to highlight key facets of today's mortgage landscape: 1. GDP: Canada's 4th Quarter (2023) GDP surprised with a 1% annualized growth rate, surpassing expectations. However, beneath the positive headline lies a complex narrative. The growth coincided with a population surge of approximately 430,635 people, equating to a 4% annualized growth rate. On a per capita basis, Canadians appear to be experiencing the intended tightening, a trend persisting in 5 of the last 6 quarters. Per capita GDP adjusted for inflation is now lower than Q4 2014, a noteworthy observation challenging the notion of an economy in need of restraint. 2. Labour: In January, Canada's Labor Force added 37,000 jobs, outperforming expectations, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.7%. However, a closer examination reveals some finer details. Despite adult population growth of 125,500 people, the labor force expanded by a much smaller 18,200. Additionally, the participation rate for the age group of 15-24 witnessed a concerning decline of 130,000 persons. Without this decline, the unemployment rate would be 0.5% higher. 3. Inflation: Canada's Headline Inflation Number registered below expectations at 2.9%. In the ongoing battle against inflation, there has been significant progress since CPI peaked at 8.1% in June 2022, now comfortably below the 3% threshold. Core measures, though still elevated at 3.4% and 3.3% respectively, are expected to ease further as higher rates prompt more mortgage holders to renew into lower interest rate mortgages. 4. Global Considerations: Economic performance and Bond yields have been influenced by global factors. While global economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2023, U.S. GDP growth remained surprisingly robust and broad-based. Inflation in the U.S. and the Euro area continued to ease, accompanied by a notable rise in equity markets. What's Next? The looming question pertains to the BoC's eventual decision to ease interest rates. The per capita statistics and the intricate state of the Canadian economy are interwoven in unpredictable ways, with the wildcard being the surge in population growth. Inflation, triggered by demand exceeding supply, faces uncertainties on how pent-up demand will respond to rate cuts. The surge in Canada's population, almost double the pre-COVID growth, plays a crucial role in shaping the trajectory of the BoC's decisions. Since October 2023, significant drops in fixed mortgage rates have been observed, likely to persist gradually as markets anticipate rate cuts by the BoC. Current odds indicate at least one rate cut by this summer, and two more to follow before year-end ( market survey ). As we approach the Spring Market, optimism and demand gain momentum. If you've adopted a 'wait and see' approach, now is the opportune moment for a conversation. Preparing before the first rate cut is pivotal, as optimism will inevitably transition to confidence, and housing market activity will return to normal levels. Next BoC Announcement: April 10, 2024.
In light of the softening of the Canadian economy, the Bank of Canada opted to maintain its overnight rate for the fifth consecutive time earlier this month leaving Prime and variable product pricing unchanged. While "financial conditions have eased," the Bank also highlighted persistent inflationary pressures stemming from ongoing wage growth and robust immigration. This is exacerbated by the housing supply failing to keep pace. The Bank continues to emphasize the need for restrictive policy to bring inflation back within target, yet “the market” is no longer buying it! With subdued core inflation pressures, declining GDP and house prices, and a softening labour market, it is inevitable that the Bank will need to reduce rates to avoid severe economic consequences. Market consensus is the rate-tightening cycle has passed and both new and existing mortgage holders can look to much needed rate reprieve in 2024. Bond yields have dipped more than -100bpts since October, leading to lower fixed rates. Conventional 5-year fixed rates are offered at 5.69-5.99%, with a noteworthy offer of 4.99% for default-insured purchases. As fixed rates have only dropped -50bpts over the same period, expect further discounting in the weeks ahead. THE (MORGAGE) YEAR THAT WAS, AND WHAT LIES AHEAD?
Governor Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada (BoC) made the expected decision this week: no change to the Overnight Rate [no change to Prime] . While the Bank has surprised markets in the past, this week’s hold was widely anticipated. What makes this instance unique is the growing body of evidence showing that higher interest rates are leaving their mark on the economy... Unprecedented Data Points: Second quarter GDP figures fell significantly below expectations, contracting by 0.2% compared to anticipated growth of 1.2% to 1.5%. Despite substantial population growth, the economy should be thriving, but it's not. Time Lag of Rate Impact: Generally, interest rates take over 12 months to exert their full influence. In the last year, we've seen a total increase of 1.25% in Q2 2022 and another 1.75% in rate hikes in Q3 2022. The July 2023 GDP numbers are showing the impact of these hikes, with sluggish growth. Consumption and Employment Challenges: Total retail sales have plateaued, especially when adjusted per capita, reflecting the weight of higher interest rates on consumer spending. The unemployment rate has climbed by 0.5% in the last three months, further complicating the economic picture. What does this mean for mortgages and rates? Inflation is likely to persist at elevated levels for some time, but it won't prompt the BoC to act unless accompanied by a rebound in GDP growth and spending. As disappointing economic data advances expectations of rate cuts, we may experience downward pressure on fixed interest rates sooner than previously forcasted. Experts are nearing a consensus that the BoC has reached its ceiling on rate tightening, with inflation as the last obstacle before easing. In these uncertain times, we are here to assist. Whether you're considering home buying or refinancing for improved cash flow, we can provide the answers tailored to your needs. Please don't hesitate to reach out to discuss your mortgage needs!
Following weeks of surging rates, Canadian bond yields (which directed impact fixed mortgage rates) have retracted below the 4% threshold, shedding 26 basis points from the previous week's 16-year peak — a potentially temporary but welcome development.
